Each issue of the Pulse tracks three public signals: the retail price of diesel, the direction of the dry van spot market, and container volume at the Southeast's largest container gateway. It adds what the calendar usually does to truck capacity in the current week, and finishes with the handful of things a shipper can actually change in a quote request. It takes about four minutes to read and is written for the person who books the trucks, not for a trading desk.
This week in numbers
Issue 2 · Sources published through October 20, 2026
Reading the three together
Diesel turned back up after three weekly declines. EIA's weekly table has the U.S. average at $6.529 for the week of Sept 21, 2026, the highest weekly reading of 2026 so far, then $6.382 (Sept 28), $6.199 (Oct 5) and $6.179 (Oct 12) before this week's rise to $6.276. That leaves it $0.253 below the September high and $2.656 above the same week a year ago. The Lower Atlantic series (EIA's PADD 1C: West Virginia, Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida) rose almost exactly as much, $0.095 to $5.740, and still sits $0.536 under the national average. One week up does not make a trend, but it ends the three-week decline that had been easing fuel lines since late September.
Spot rates held while load posts cooled. DAT's report for the week ending Oct 17 has national dry van spot rates essentially unchanged, a fraction lower than the week before, with load posts down, truck posts slightly down and the load-to-truck ratio easing, though still well above where it was a year ago. Every Southeast-area origin region in DAT's top ten (Southeast, Carolinas, Florida–South Georgia and Lower Atlantic) slipped a little, with the Carolinas down the most of the ten. On open deck, DAT's flatbed report of the same day has rates also holding, but flatbed was the only one of DAT's three equipment types whose load-to-truck ratio rose, and it remains the tightest of the three boards.
The import wave is cresting. GPA's latest monthly release still covers September, when import loads led Savannah's growth and the authority pointed to an extended peak season and a strong demand forecast through year end. Nationally, the National Retail Federation's Global Port Tracker (Oct 8, 2026) forecasts 2.25 million TEUs of imports in October at the major U.S. container ports it tracks, up 8.5% from a year earlier, then 2 million in November, down 1%, and NRF's Jonathan Gold said the busiest part of the year has likely passed. Containers become truckloads a few weeks after they land, so distribution centers around Savannah and along I-16 and I-95 are still shipping that wave out to stores this month even as fewer boxes arrive.
Seasonality this week: what late October into November usually means
These are general industry patterns, hedged on purpose, with the dates that anchor them. Any given year departs from the patterns, and the dated numbers above are the check on whether this one is. The Shipping Seasons Calendar marks these weeks month by month.
- Dry van: from receiving to replenishing. NRF's October 8 release says most holiday merchandise has already arrived and describes the rest of the year as mainly last-minute replenishment and preparation for early 2027. As a general pattern, retail distribution centers then shift from receiving holiday inventory to shipping it out to stores through November. Demand for 53-foot vans out of port-adjacent and regional DCs usually stays firm into November, then fades in December. See dry van freight and the retail DC delivery guide.
- Two federal holidays in November. OPM's 2026 schedule puts Veterans Day on Wednesday, November 11 and Thanksgiving on Thursday, November 26. Thanksgiving week loses working days on both the carrier and the receiver side, and many drivers plan to be home, so freight that has to deliver between November 23 and 27 is easier to cover when it is tendered well ahead. Veterans Day is a federal holiday, which matters for deliveries to federal receiving offices; see government and defense freight.
- Shorter days for open-deck freight. Daylight saving time ends at 2 a.m. on Sunday, November 1; 15 U.S.C. 260a(a) sets the end as the first Sunday of November. Sunset arrives about an hour earlier on the clock, and days keep shortening into December. That matters for oversize moves: in Georgia, for example, permitted loads over legal dimensions may move only from 30 minutes after sunrise to 30 minutes before sunset unless the permit or a specific rule says otherwise (Ga. Comp. R. & Regs. r. 672-2-.03(c)). Other states set their own windows; the permit governs. See flatbed and hotshot freight.
- Hurricane season's last weeks. NOAA's National Hurricane Center puts the Atlantic season at June 1 to November 30, with most activity between mid-August and mid-October. The busiest window is behind us; the season is not. A late Gulf or Florida storm still pulls flatbed and van capacity into relief freight on short notice and closes roads on the lanes we focus on.
- Flatbed: northern construction slows, the Southeast keeps building. Open-deck demand usually peaks in late spring and early summer, then softens through the fourth quarter as weather closes northern job sites. The Southeast builds later into the year, and year-end machinery and equipment deliveries keep open-deck capacity busier here than the national pattern suggests, which fits DAT's flatbed board staying the tightest of the three this week.
What this means for your quote this week
- Check which EIA week your fuel line uses. A quote built on the October 12 price ($6.179) and one built on this week's ($6.276) differ by about $9.70 of fuel on a 600-mile load under the formula in the worked example below. Ask for the fuel line separately, with the EIA series and the date, and on a recurring lane let it float with EIA instead of renegotiating it every month.
- Ask which series, too. On the same formula, pricing that load on the Lower Atlantic average instead of the U.S. average is about $53.60 lower this week, more than five times this week's diesel move. Neither is wrong; they are different numbers, and you should know which one you are paying.
- Tender Thanksgiving-week freight now. Anything that has to deliver between November 23 and 27 has fewer carrier working days around it. Offer a two- or three-day pickup window rather than one hard date, and get the receiver's Thanksgiving-week hours in writing before you build the schedule around them.
- Plan open-deck loading earlier in the day after November 1. With sunset an hour earlier on the clock, a flatbed or hotshot load that finishes loading late in the afternoon may not be able to roll that day, especially on a permitted move. Ask the shipper's dock for a morning slot, and our quote-ready checklist lists the rest of what a carrier needs to price it.
- Near Savannah or along I-16 and I-95, settle detention terms before dispatch. DCs are still shipping out the import wave. Free time at each end and the detention rate belong in writing before the truck is assigned, not after it has waited.
- Watch the National Hurricane Center through November 30. For Florida, Alabama and Georgia deliveries, a day of slack in the schedule costs less than an expedite after a storm pulls trucks into relief freight.
Worked example: what this week's diesel move does to a fuel line (illustrative)
Assume a fuel surcharge program with a $1.25 per gallon base and 6.0 miles per gallon. Both are illustrative; real programs set their own base, step and mileage figures. The surcharge per mile is (EIA price − base) ÷ miles per gallon. A 600-mile load at 6.0 miles per gallon is 100 gallons, so its fuel line is 100 × (EIA price − $1.25). All prices are from EIA's weekly on-highway diesel table linked above; per-mile figures are rounded to a tenth of a cent.
| EIA diesel, week of | Surcharge per mile | Fuel line on a 600-mile load |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. $6.529 (Sept 21, 2026, highest week of 2026 so far) | $0.880 | $527.90 |
| U.S. $6.179 (Oct 12, 2026, last week) | $0.822 | $492.90 |
| U.S. $6.276 (Oct 19, 2026, this week) | $0.838 | $502.60 |
| Lower Atlantic $5.740 (Oct 19, 2026, this week) | $0.748 | $449.00 |
This week's $0.097 rise adds about $9.70 to the 600-mile fuel line ($502.60 − $492.90), which is still $25.30 below the September high ($527.90 − $502.60). The series choice is worth more than the week: $502.60 − $449.00 = $53.60. The linehaul is deliberately left out of the table. It is the number you negotiate, it moves with the spot market rather than with diesel, and it is not ours to quote.
Freight terms this week
PADD (Petroleum Administration for Defense District)
The regions EIA uses to report fuel prices (EIA glossary). PADD 1 is the East Coast, split into New England (1A), the Central Atlantic (1B) and the Lower Atlantic (1C); PADD 3 is the Gulf Coast, which includes Alabama. A fuel surcharge keyed to "Lower Atlantic" uses the 1C average, which this week ran $0.536 under the U.S. average. Before you compare two quotes' fuel lines, check that both name the same PADD, or the national average, and the same week.
Holiday cutoff
The last day a load can be tendered, picked up or delivered before a holiday closes docks, set by the shipper, the receiver or both. Around Thanksgiving it can come earlier than people assume, because carriers plan drivers' home time and receivers may close or shorten hours. Ask the receiver for its cutoff and holiday hours in writing, and build the pickup date back from there rather than forward from when the freight is ready.
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A short note from Averstone Logistics LLC, a Missouri-based company, with a link to the new issue: diesel, spot direction, port volume and what they mean for your quote, dated and sourced.
Past issues
Each issue stays up unchanged at its own dated address, so you can see what the numbers said at the time.
- Issue 1 · Week of October 13, 2026Diesel easing from the September spike, dry van spot rates up week over week, and Savannah's record September.
Where Averstone Logistics fits
Our focus once we open: Hotshot and flatbed freight nationwide (lower 48). Dry van truckload across North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, Florida, Alabama and Tennessee. USA only — no cross-border, no drayage, no rail, no temperature-controlled freight. The Pulse is written around those lanes, which is why the Lower Atlantic diesel series and the Port of Savannah get their own lines. If you have freight coming up on them, tell us about it and we will contact you the day our registration is active; in the meantime the trailer selector and the guides under Resources are free to use.