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Each issue of the Pulse tracks three public signals: the retail price of diesel, the direction of the dry van spot market, and container volume at the Southeast's largest container gateway. It adds what the calendar usually does to truck capacity in the current week, and finishes with the handful of things a shipper can actually change in a quote request. It takes about four minutes to read and is written for the person who books the trucks, not for a trading desk.
This week in numbers
Issue 1 · Sources published through October 14, 2026
Reading the three together
Diesel is easing from a September spike, but the level is still high. EIA's weekly table shows the U.S. average climbed from $5.967 (week ending Sept 7, 2026) to $6.529 (Sept 21), the high of the past six weeks, then fell three straight weeks: $6.382 (Sept 28), $6.199 (Oct 5) and $6.179 (Oct 12). For Southeast lanes the Lower Atlantic series (EIA's PADD 1C, which covers West Virginia, Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida) is the one to watch; at $5.645 it sits well under the national average and fell more than the national average did this week. Direction helps, but at anything over $6 the fuel line is a large share of a long-haul quote, which is why the worked example below is about fuel.
Spot rates rose while the load-to-truck ratio eased. DAT's report for the week ending Oct 10 has national dry van spot rates up week over week even as load posts fell, truck posts rose and the ratio slipped. The two do not always move together from one week to the next, and this is a week where they did not; the report explains DAT's reading of why, and it is a five-minute read worth opening before you tender anything long.
Savannah's peak season ran long. GPA credits strong consumer spending and an extended peak season, and says typhoon-related delays at Asian ports pushed peak volumes into September. Ocean imports become truckloads a few weeks after they land, so the distribution centers around Savannah and along the I-16 and I-95 corridors were working through that wave in early October. If your dry van freight picks up or delivers in that corridor, expect busier docks than usual and plan appointments with that in mind.
Seasonality this week: what mid-October usually means
These are general industry patterns, hedged on purpose. Any given year departs from them, and the dated numbers above are the check on whether this one is.
- Dry van: holiday inbound. Retail distribution centers are receiving holiday inventory now and replenishing stores through November. Demand for 53-foot vans out of port-adjacent and regional DCs is usually firmer in October than in July, and Thanksgiving week, six weeks out, will remove several working days from carriers' calendars. See dry van freight and the retail DC delivery guide.
- The produce tail. Summer produce seasons are over in most regions, and the temperature-controlled trailers that hauled them are freed up. Many of those trailers take dry freight when produce is thin, which tends to loosen van capacity a little in the fall compared with May and June, when produce pulls trailers away from dry freight.
- Hurricane season is in its last six weeks. NOAA's National Hurricane Center puts the Atlantic season at June 1 to November 30, with the climatological peak on September 10 and most activity between mid-August and mid-October. We are at the back of the busy window, not past it. A late Gulf or Florida storm pulls flatbed and van capacity into relief freight on short notice and closes roads on the lanes we focus on.
- Flatbed: construction season winding down in the North. Open-deck demand usually peaks in late spring and early summer with construction and agriculture, then softens through the fourth quarter as weather closes northern job sites. The Southeast builds later into the year, and year-end machinery and equipment deliveries keep flatbed and hotshot capacity busier here than the national pattern suggests.
What this means for your quote this week
- Tender earlier than you did in August. Spot direction is up and the Savannah import wave is still turning into outbound truckloads. A load offered three to five business days ahead has more carrier options than one offered the day before, and in October that gap is wider than in midsummer.
- Offer a pickup window, not a single day. Two or three ready days lets a carrier pair your load with the one before it and usually prices better than one hard date. It is also protection if a holiday-season DC appointment slips.
- Ask for the fuel line separately, with the EIA series and week-ending date. With diesel at $6.179 (EIA, week ending Oct 12, 2026) fuel is a large share of any long-haul quote. Knowing the series and the week lets you check the number yourself, and on a recurring lane it lets the fuel line float with EIA instead of being renegotiated every month.
- Near Savannah or along I-16 and I-95, settle detention terms before dispatch. A record September means busy receiving docks into October. Free time at each end and the detention rate belong in writing before the truck is assigned, not after it has waited. Our quote-ready checklist lists the rest of what a carrier needs.
- Watch the National Hurricane Center through November 30. For Florida, Alabama and Georgia deliveries over the next six weeks, build a day of slack into the schedule rather than paying for an expedite after a storm pulls trucks into relief freight.
Worked example: what the diesel move does to a fuel line (illustrative)
Assume a fuel surcharge program with a $1.25 per gallon base and 6.0 miles per gallon. Both are illustrative; real programs set their own base, step and mileage figures. The surcharge per mile is (EIA price − base) ÷ miles per gallon, and all three diesel prices are EIA U.S. on-highway averages from the weekly table linked above.
| EIA U.S. diesel, week ending | Surcharge per mile | Fuel line on a 600-mile load |
|---|---|---|
| $6.529 (Sept 21, 2026, six-week high) | $0.880 | $527.90 |
| $6.199 (Oct 5, 2026) | $0.825 | $494.90 |
| $6.179 (Oct 12, 2026, this week) | $0.822 | $492.90 |
The week-over-week change is worth about $2 on a 600-mile load; the fall from the September high is worth about $35. The linehaul is deliberately left out of the table. It is the number you negotiate, it moves with the spot market rather than with diesel, and it is not ours to quote.
Freight terms this week
Fuel surcharge (FSC)
A separate line on a truckload rate that moves with diesel. Most programs key it to EIA's weekly U.S. or regional average: a base price, a step size and a per-mile adjustment, so the fuel line resets each week without reopening the linehaul. Two things to ask about any quote: which EIA series it uses (U.S. average or a region such as Lower Atlantic) and which week-ending date. An all-in rate hides both, which is fine for a one-off load and risky on a lane that runs every week.
Load-to-truck ratio
DAT's count of loads posted on its marketplace divided by trucks posted, reported by equipment type and region. A rising ratio means more freight chasing each truck, and rates tend to firm; a falling ratio is the reverse. It is a directional signal from one large marketplace, not a census of all freight moving, which is why a week like this one, with rates up and the ratio down, is worth reading in DAT's own words rather than from the headline.
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A short note from Averstone Logistics LLC, a Missouri-based company, with a link to the new issue: diesel, spot direction, port volume and what they mean for your quote, dated and sourced.
Where Averstone Logistics fits
Our focus once we open: Hotshot and flatbed freight nationwide (lower 48). Dry van truckload across North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, Florida, Alabama and Tennessee. USA only — no cross-border, no drayage, no rail, no temperature-controlled freight. The Pulse is written around those lanes, which is why the Lower Atlantic diesel series and the Port of Savannah get their own lines. If you have freight coming up on them, tell us about it and we will contact you the day our registration is active; in the meantime the trailer selector and the guides under Resources are free to use.